JUBA, South Sudan — After a series of postponements since the country’s first post-independence elections were scheduled for 2015, South Sudan is due to hold general elections on 22 December 2026. But with the vote just months away, questions over preparedness, political competition, security and the participation of millions of displaced citizens continue to cast uncertainty over the process. 

Political analysts and civil society actors have raised concerns that holding elections so close to the Christmas period could create additional logistical and social pressures in a country where previous political crises have had devastating consequences. 

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in July 2011, but its transition to an electoral democracy has been repeatedly disrupted. National elections initially scheduled for 9 July 2015 were postponed to 2018, 2021, 2023, 2024 and, most recently, December 2026. 

The postponements have been linked to the outbreak of civil war, difficulties implementing peace agreements, institutional weaknesses and disagreements among political leaders over the conditions necessary for credible elections. 

Parliament dissolved as election preparations intensify 

Last week, President Salva Kiir took a unilateral decision to dissolve Parliament and the Cabinet, according to the account provided by political sources, leaving the president at the centre of the country's executive administration as preparations for the election intensify. 

The move has generated questions about the separation of powers and the political environment in which the president will campaign. 

Critics argue that the president should not simultaneously oversee the administration of the country while campaigning for re-election. They contend that constitutional mechanisms should be used to ensure a clearer separation between the responsibilities of the state and those of a presidential candidate. 

The political climate has inevitably revived memories of the crisis that erupted in December 2013, when political tensions within the ruling establishment escalated into armed conflict. The violence eventually developed into a devastating civil war that displaced millions of South Sudanese. 

Questions over the electoral framework 

Among the most significant concerns is the absence of a comprehensive national population census since independence. 

Without an updated census, questions remain about the size and geographical distribution of the population and how the number of eligible voters should be established. South Sudan's constitutional framework provides for citizens aged 18 and above to participate in elections. 

The National Elections Commission also faces scrutiny over its preparedness. Critics have questioned the absence, at various stages, of a publicly detailed electoral roadmap, voter education and the availability of election materials. 

The leadership of the electoral commission has also become politically contentious following the replacement of its long-serving chairman by an appointee viewed by critics as being close to President Kiir. 

For an election to be widely accepted, observers say the electoral process will need to address questions surrounding voter registration, civic education, polling materials, security and the independence of electoral institutions. 

Millions of displaced citizens 

The participation of displaced South Sudanese presents another major challenge. 

More than three million South Sudanese have been displaced either into neighboring countries or within South Sudan, according to international humanitarian agencies. Many refugees remain in camps outside the country, while internally displaced people continue to live in displacement sites and other vulnerable communities. 

Their ability to register and vote will be an important test of the inclusiveness of the electoral process. 

The logistical challenge is particularly significant in a country where infrastructure remains limited and insecurity continues to affect several regions. 

Opposition under pressure 

The political environment is further complicated by the legal and security situation surrounding Dr Riek Machar, the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and President Kiir's principal political rival during the country's previous power struggles. 

Machar has been under detention since 2025 and has faced ongoing court proceedings in Juba. His absence from the political campaign has raised questions about the extent to which the election will provide a genuine contest among the country's principal political forces. 

At the same time, fighting has continued in parts of Central Equatoria and Upper Nile states. The continuing insecurity raises another fundamental question: whether voting can realistically take place across the entire country or whether significant parts of the population will face difficulties reaching polling stations. 

Five candidates declare intentions 

At least five candidates have so far announced their intention to contest the presidential election, according to the political landscape described by campaign and party sources. 

They include incumbent President Salva Kiir, who is seeking another term under the SPLM/SPLA political establishment; Dr Issa Muzail of the NMP; independent candidate Tijwog Agwet; Peter Mayen of the PLP; and Elder Kornelio Kon of the NAOPP. 

The field could change as the election approaches, particularly given the unresolved political and legal disputes surrounding the opposition and the electoral framework. 

A test for South Sudan's political transition 

The December election is intended to mark a major milestone in South Sudan's political transition and would be the country's first general election since independence. 

But the credibility of the vote will depend not only on whether polling takes place on 22 December. Questions over voter registration, the participation of displaced citizens, security, electoral institutions, political freedoms and the ability of candidates to campaign will all influence how the outcome is received. 

For millions of South Sudanese at home and abroad, the central question is therefore not simply whether an election will be held, but whether the conditions exist for an electoral process that is sufficiently inclusive, transparent and credible to command public confidence. 

With the country still dealing with the consequences of years of conflict and political instability, the 2026 election represents a critical moment in South Sudan's unfinished transition from war to representative government. 

Justin S. Kwaja 

SSLN